Page 125 - Abhivruddhi

2023 269982.5 10 76.9 3510.8
2024 296980.8 10 77.8 3817.2
2025 326678.9 10 78.8 4145.7
2026 359346.8 10 79.7 4508.7
2027 395281.4 10 80.7 4898.2
2028 434809.6 10 81.6 5328.5

Our GDP growth projection of 4% may be too pessimistic. Keeping the
inflation projection same, we tired two other projections of 5% (moderate)
and 6% (optimistic) for GDP growth. The corresponding target dates for
meeting the PM’s target get preponed to 2027 in both cases. The difference
is that for the optimistic projection, the target is almost met in 2026 with
GDP level at $ 4.933 trillion.
As explained, we need not expect a change in steady inflation to affect
the $ GDP target. Hence a lower inflation rate than our assumed high 6%
is unlikely to make much difference to the target date. However, big swings
in the Rs/$ rate, for which we are assuming under 3% real appreciation per
year, are likely to push our projected target date off track. The vagaries of
global financial markets and Federal Reserve policy will drive the exchange
rate.
Based on ongoing developments, and using their judgement, policy
makers and other economists can posit their assumed values for real and
Rs. NGDP growth in rupees, the Rs/$ rate and accordingly arrive at their
estimated $5 trillion. target date. Under the aegis of the new economist as
Chief Economic Advisor, we hope and expect any future target date will
be based on a well spelt out framework and justifications for the assumed
numbers.

Post Script:

The answering phantom states a figure,
Reconsiders, makes it bigger.
Oh needless numbers and half true,
without you what would nations do?

From: Research in Jiangsu Province, poem in The Humble Administrator’s
Garden, by Vikram Seth

125