Page 37 - Abhivruddhi

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, GoI3, Excel File:
Annual and Quarterly Estimates of GDP at current prices, 2011-12 series
shows in its Second Advanced Estimates for the FY 2021-22 that, GVA (~
214 Lakh Crore Rupees) forms 90 % of the GDP (~ 236 Lakh Crore Rupees)
while rest 10 % is Taxes.

Sectoral breakup according to FY 2021-22 Second Advanced Estimates:
Sector % GVA % GDP
Agriculture ~ 19 ~ 17

Industry ~ 29 ~ 26
Services ~ 53 ~ 48
Total GVA ~ 91
GVA breakup tells us that a boost to Agriculture and Allied Industries
can lead to a major multiplier effect. This is considering the chunk of
population portion associated with / dependent on this sector. According
to world bank4, though about 43 % population is engaged in this sector,
its contribution to GVA (and GDP) is limited to just about 19 (and 17) %
respectively. A boost to this sector will not only add to the GVA and GDP
but also reduce the grave disparity in India. In fact, the Indian Government
started discussing in 2014, one of its key initiatives, doubling farmers’
income by 2022. Other initiatives taken by the Indian Government for the
Agriculture Sector in the last seven years include E-NAM, Kisan Rail, One
District One Crop, Kisan Credit Card etc. Each of these initiatives along
with FPOs are proving to be a boon for the farmers and agriculture sector
in general.
FTDE Target:
In terms of INR FTDE target is 375 Lakh Crore Rupees (@ 75 INR/
USD). That is almost 1.6 times the current (2021-22) GDP. Assuming a
rather ambitious average GDP growth rate of say 10%, reaching the FTDE
target will take more than 4 years. The target can thus be realised only in
2026 or later. How to achieve this target early is the natural critical question.
As we write this article, Ukraine-Russia war casts a gloom on the global
economy with crude oil prices remaining above 100 $ a barrel mark since
01 March 2022 and even crossing once the 128 $ a barrel mark on 08 March
2022. Consequent Inflation could slow down the economies or even shrink
them. We cannot imagine what India’s oil import bill would be. Unless the
situation diffuses soon, this is bound to be a big hurdle in the growth of
world economies. Unforeseen changes could happen to Exchange Rates,

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