Page 58 - IMDR Journal 2025

Research Article
confidence and lead to positive market reactions,
anticipating stability and continuity in governance. (Kavita
Chavali, 2020)
Dr. Girish A. Bodhankar (2021) focused on volatility during
30-day windows around elections, providing insights into
market behaviour during critical electoral periods. His
research indicates that heightened volatility often
accompanies elections, likely influenced by uncertainty and
speculation surrounding political outcomes. This volatility
can be accentuated by exit polls, as they may introduce
additional uncertainty or reinforce existing sentiments,
leading to rapid market adjustments. (Prof, 2020)
Despite the valuable insights from existing studies, notable
gaps remain concerning the specific impact of exit polls on
the Indian stock market. Many studies focus broadly on
elections without isolating the effects of exit poll data.
Additionally, the role of psychological factors influencing
investor behaviour in response to exit polls is often
underexplored. Future research could benefit from real-time
data analysis around exit polls, providing a nuanced
understanding of their immediate effects on market
dynamics.
DATA ANALYSIS
Polls & Results
Lok Sabha 2004
(Source: Primary)
The results of the 2009 election were much expected and
pre-election result market didn’t react much to exit polls
with minor movements of 1.47% positive tick. The result
day the Indian markets gave its first ever upper circuit and
73% up move post the election result.

Lok Sabha 2014

(Source: Primary)

The election of the 2004 showed unexpected fall of the
NDA Alliance. The polls showed one sided victory for
UPA Alliance. The stock market was not expecting
such election result
(Source: Primary)
giving negative fall of 4% on the polls and 12% downfall on The 2014 election was a complete Modi wave; it totally took
the result day. The VIX hit 30.25 during this period. the market in positive way. The markets continued to rally
Lok Sabha 2009 20% pre-election and 28% post-election. The notable thing
was VIX hit 36 during this period.

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