Page 114 - Abhivruddhi

GDP projections – both levels and growth rates -- we can then assess
specific numerical targets, as they were set and revised in real time, starting
with those for India and other major emerging economies initiated almost
two decades ago. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section
Two follows the post millennium journey of India’s GDP, delving into
the BRIC Reports of Goldman Sachs. Section Three provides a numerical
assessment of the 2019 targets and concludes that some criticisms of these
targets are deficient. Section Four outlines a macroeconomic framework
to assess the accuracy of NGNP targets, measured in both rupees and
dollars and applies it to the ‘real time’ data as of

It should be kept in mind that GDP as a concept was first developed
by William Petty to form an estimate of taxable capacity to fight a war
against France.
The Domar debt stability condition (that GDP growth rate exceed
the interest rate on government debt) can be assessed in either nominal
or real terms. The former is preferrable since the nominal values are raw
and unambiguous.
mid 2019. Section Five uses this framework to broadly assess the
accuracy of revised official targets announced after the February 2022
budget.

Section Two: Trillion Dollar Landmarks of India’s GDP Journey:
Over and above the needs of GDP numbers for fiscal projections
and firms planning, GDP comparisons have, unfortunately, become a
well established global pastime. Countries have been participating for
decades in what can be characterised as an “economic Olympics” of sorts.
The acronym BRICs for the four big emerging economies Brazil, Russia,
Indian and China was coined in the first October 2003 “Dreaming with
BRICs” report, with South Africa added later. In January 2007, Goldman
Sachs published its second BRICS report. In the first Report, the prognosis
for BRICS’ GDP growth were quite optimistic, but not exceedingly bullish.
The second BRICs report predicted, based on assuming 8% trend
growth, that India’s GDP would overtake Italy by 2015, Japan by 2028,
and USA by 2043. For overtaking USA, the projected overtake date was
pushed up seven years ahead from 2050, as per the first BRICS report. In
April 2007, following the second 2007 report and robust GDP growth,
euphoria broke out in India since it was entering the ‘trillion dollar GDP
club’.

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