Page 30 - IMDR JOURNAL 2020-21
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IMDR’s Journal of Management Development and Research 2020-21
TABLE 1- FORMATION OF TRANSITION using algebraic expression.
MATRIX 2. Probability that supplier B will have a share
in the market.
Let us determine above parameters using Markov
Sunny Cloudy Chain technique.
80% 20% 1. Finding a share of suppliers A and B out of
70% 30% 6400 consumers using matrices.
Initially, let us suppose that 6400 consumers are
shared equally between A and B i.e. 3200 each.
Sunny Cloudy Thus the consumer matrix is formed as follows. The
0.80 0.20 consumer matrix is 1X2 matrix having one row and
0.70 0.30 two columns.
A B
Table 1 shows formation of transition matrix from 3200 3200
transition model. In the advent of modern IT tools
such as data science and Python programming the As a second step, it is required to form a Transition
task has been simpler to handle and manipulate a model. As per the records of supplier A there is
complex data. 75% probability of sale of their product out of
The Research Methodology total products sold out whereas the observations of
The Research Methodology formulated for this supplier B predict 50% chances of the sale of their
paper is furnished as hereunder. product. Therefore the prediction of 75% possibility
1. Problem definition of A indicates that balance 25% would be sold by
2. Collection of data from markets. B. Similarly in view of agency B, there are 50%
3. Study of available alternatives and selecting chances of selling of their product. This indicates
one of them. that balance 50% chances are in favor of supplier A.
4. Conducting research on convention Markov This relationship between suppliers A and B can be
chain model and develop a new model expressed in Transition Model illustrated in Fig 2.
5. Preparation of algorithm and writing Python
Source code for a developed model. Fig. 2. Transition model for specified example
6. Obtaining results on Python program using a
sample data.
7. Validation of results by comparing computed
results and actual results
8. System implementation.
II CONSUMER AND MARKET ANALYSIS
The consumer and market analysis can be
conducted effectively using Markov Chain
technique. This can be illustrated with an example.
Certain market comprises of 6400 consumers for a
particular product. There are two suppliers A and
B who supply this material to this market. The past Now, the Transition matrix can be prepared from
sales record of A indicates that there was 75% of the Transition model. It is the 2X2 matrix having
sale out of the total requirement in the market . two rows and two columns.
Similarly , the past record of B shows that 50%
of their products out of total requirement were sold. A B
The following parameters can be determined using 75% 25%
Markov Chain :- 50% 50%
1. Share of suppliers A and B out of 6400 Now it is required to multiply consumer matrix
consumers using Consumer and Transition matrices. by transition matrix. It should be noted here that
Share of suppliers A and B out of 6400 consumers this matrix multiplication is not commutative.
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